This is the first edition of AMA Research’s report on non-domestic rooftop solar PV covering: warehousing, factories, retail, schools, higher education, leisure & hospitality etc. It provides an analysis of the annual and cumulative deployment of solar PV capacity across the rooftops of non-domestic buildings.
There is an estimate of the breakdown of the deployment of capacity by end-use sector and a forecast of which sectors have the greatest potential for future growth.
We also identify key stakeholders including commercial and industrial landlords and investors, retail groups and other major tenant organisations.
The PESTLE analysis offers a detailed review of key growth drivers and potential barriers to the rate of uptake.
On 27 February 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finalised the second part of the Sixth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, the Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report.
In summary, it states the world has reached a point when humans and nature are being pushed beyond their abilities to adapt and that over 40% of the world’s population are ‘highly vulnerable’ to extreme weather events linked to climate change like floods and heatwaves.
Following COP26 and the UK’s government’s commitment to zero CO2 emissions by 2050 there is now a sense of urgency that fossil fuel dependent countries must cut their use right back while also investing much more heavily in renewable energy, with a major focus on wind and solar power.
In line with the government’s Sixth Carbon Budget, by 2035 greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 78%. Between them, the CCC states wind and solar power will need to provide 75-90% of the UK’s electricity in 2035, with solar power alone delivering 60TWh a year.
Published in late 2021, the report Lighting the Way from Solar Energy UK says it is ‘catalysing our members to pave the way for 40GWp of solar energy capacity by 2030’. This means around 25GWp will need to be delivered over a 9-year period, equating to 2.7GWp a year.
Key Issues Covered in the Report
- Review of rooftop solar PV deployment during the subsidies era (i.e. Renewables Obligation and Feed-in-Tarrif). AMA Research quantitative and qualitative review of the roll-out of non-domestic rooftop solar in the post-subsidy era.
- Review of UK non-domestic building stock by floor area and, where possible, by roof area by end-use sub-sector
- Detailed overview of annual electricity consumption by main non-domestic sub-sectors; review of annual greenhouse gas emissions by main non-domestic sub-sectors.
- Review of key PESTLE factors including: grid connectivity; funding models, primarily PPAs (power purchase agreements; decline in prices of solar panels; government policies e.g. overarching UK climate change policy, changes to EPC regulations and Net Zero ambitions, public sector decarbonization scheme and mandatory ESG reporting; pan-global initiatives to tackle climate change including United Nations’ Race to Zero campaign, Science Based Targets and Climate Ambition Alliance; review of private sector initiatives e.g. Climate Action 100+, Net Zero Asset Managers; coverage of skills shortages facing the ‘green’ economy
- AMA Research’s own estimates of the market potential for the future deployment of non-domestic rooftop solar PV, identifying key types of buildings i.e. warehousing, factories, schools & universities and the NHS estate.
- Identification of key stakeholders: property owners /landlords, corporate occupiers and leading developers-installers of rooftop solar PV systems.
Areas of Particular Interest
- Quantification of the annual and cumulative deployment (MWp) of non-domestic rooftop solar PV arrays to 2022.
- Breakdown and reviews of rooftop deployment solar PV deployment by types of buildings: -warehousing, factories, retail outlets, hospitality & leisure buildings, schools, universities, public administration (e.g. public sector offices, fire stations, police stations, MoD buildings etc).
- Table showing largest non-domestic rooftop arrays in UK by specific building types, of 3MWp and higher.
- Major stakeholder reviews:- summaries of Net Zero and interim carbon reduction targets; data on rooftop solar PV capacity where possible and relevant. Key companies reviewed include: largest industrial landlords /REITs (real estate investment trusts) e.g. Prologis, Tritax, Logicor and SEGRO etc; the supermarket groups and other major retailers operating out-of-town; major out-of-town retail landlords e.g. British Land, M & G Real Estate, New River REIT, Landsec etc;
- Table summarizing 40+ key developers, installers and O & M firms active in the non-domestic rooftop solar PV market e.g. Custom Solar, Zestec, Photon Energy, Push.
- Estimates of potential rooftop solar PV capacities in key sectors i.e. warehousing, factories, schools and out-of-town retail sites.
Key Areas Covered in the Report
Market review to 2022
- Review of electricity generation and consumption 2012-2022
- Overview of UK territorial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 2000-2022
- Review of overall renewable electricity generation 2012-2022
- Review of electricity consumption and GHG emissions in the commercial, industrial and public non-housing sectors.
- Identification and overview of largest sources of GHG emissions from non-domestic buildings e.g. iron & steel processing plants, cement works.
- Review of non-domestic rooftop solar PV market:- overview of UK total cumulative solar PV deployment to 2022; annual deployment of non-domestic rooftop solar PV capacity to 2022; cumulative non-domestic rooftop solar PV deployment to 2022; review of deployment of non-domestic rooftop solar PV during the subsidy era.
Market influences and drivers
- PESTLE analysis –
- Political – 2050 carbon Net Zero target; National Infrastructure Strategy; Revisions to energy National Policy Statements for infrastructure; Climate Ambition Alliance, Race to
- Net Zero and SBTi; business /corporate initiatives.
- Economic – growth in PPAs; green skills shortages; increases in energy costs; declining costs of PV panels and installation; solar panel supply issues; Smart Export Guarantee
- Social – local campaigns against solar farms and widespread support for rooftop solar PV
- Technological – improvements in solar cell conversion efficiency; R & D into alternative cell materials; barriers to grid connection
- Legal- Planning requirements and Building Regulations, Companies Act and ESG reporting; changes to EPC regulations
- Environmental – irradiance levels across UK
End use sector review
- Review of England & Wales non-domestic building stock (numbers and GIFA) by sub-sector e.g. factories, warehouses, school buildings, stand-alone retail stores etc.
- Summary of electricity consumption by end-user types
- Overview of non-domestic rooftop solar PV deployment by estimated capacities by end-use sub-sector.
- Summary review of largest installations in UK
- End user sub-sector review of rooftop solar PV deployment; number of buildings, total floor area; electricity consumption by business type; estimates of size of rooftop solar PV capacity by end-user sub-sector.
Stakeholder review
- Focus of Section is on the key areas offering substantial potential for hosting solar PV where there is a high level of market concentration among leading players with large property portfolios i.e. leading manufacturing groups, are housing landlords, retail groups and major landlords.
- Overview of manufacturing industry by business type: turnovers, employment levels and market concentration; estimated potential rooftop solar PV capacity among UK factories.
- Overview of industrial /logistics landlords sub-sector: total GIFA/roof area and total number of assets in portfolios; estimate of potential capacity for hosting rooftop solar PV; summaries of Net Zero policies, current and targeted rooftop solar PV installations where known.
- Overview of retail sectors with focus on out-of-town supermarkets, other major retail groups and leading retail landlords:- GIFA/roof area and total number of out-of-town stores in portfolios; estimate of potential capacity for hosting rooftop solar PV; summaries of Net Zero policies, current and targeted rooftop solar PV installations where known.
- Other major users of rooftop solar including Associated British Ports, Amazon GB and Premier Inn.
Forecast
- Review of general prospects regarding the future deployment of rooftop solar PV.
- Sector focus on those offering the greatest potential for the large-scale deployment of rooftop solar PV:
- Key focus on factories, warehousing, education buildings, NHS estate and the out-of-town retail sector.
The Non-Domestic Rooftop Solar PV Market Report UK 2023-2027 is available now and can be ordered here.
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