RIBA Future Trends Survey: Architects’ Workload Expectations Positive But Fragile

The Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) has published the latest Future Trends survey, a monthly report of the business and employment trends affecting the architects’ profession.

While architects remain broadly positive about future work for the fourth successive month, the RIBA Future Trends Workload Index (how practices expect workload to change over the next three months) has fallen from +8 in April to +2 in May. The RIBA Future Trends Permanent Staffing Index (how practices expect permanent staffing to change over the next three months) remains positive and rose by 1 point to +4. 

The housing sector expects workload to hold steady, but other sectors are less optimistic. Medium and large practices still see a bright future, while the regional picture is weaker. Current workloads remain down on a year ago, and, although fewer practices expect workloads to increase compared to last month, staffing levels are expected to increase. 

Workload expectations still positive but fragile 

The RIBA Future Trends Workload Index fell by 6 points to +2.  

Over the next three months, 23% of practices expect workloads to increase, 22% expect them to decrease, and 55% expect them to stay the same.  

Medium (11+ staff) and large (50+ staff) practices remain optimistic about future workloads, with a combined figure of +16, albeit down from last month’s +29. The outlook of small practices (1-10 staff) fell 5 points to -1. 

The regional picture remains mixed but is weakening overall. The Midlands & East Anglia (+6) is the only region to improve, rising by 11 points. The outlook in London (-3) and the South of England (-4) remains pessimistic, falling by 6 and 2 points respectively. The North of England (+5) and Wales & the West (+7) remain positive but down by 23 and 10 points respectively. 

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The outlook for three of the four monitored work sectors has fallen, with the Commercial (-2), Public (-7) and Community (-6) sectors all negative. The outlook for the Housing (0) sector has improved slightly, rising by 2 points. 

Staffing levels expected to hold steady 

The RIBA Future Trends Permanent Staffing Index remains positive, rising by 1 point to +4.  

• 8% of practices expect to employ fewer permanent staff over the coming three months, 11% expect to employ more, and 81% expect no change.
• Medium and large practices (+23 combined Staffing Index) continue to expect an increase in permanent staff. 
• Small practices (0) expect staffing levels to hold steady. 
• Staffing outlook in London (+7) improved by 3 points. Wales & The West (+5) fell by 5 points, but still shows an appetite for recruitment. In line with more optimism about coming workloads, Midlands & East Anglia (+7) became positive. The North of England (0) fell slightly but remains stable, and the South of England (-2) fell by 4 points. 
• The Temporary Staffing Index (0) is unchanged. 
• Levels of personal underemployment remained at 20%. 

RIBA Head of Economic Research and Analysis Adrian Malleson said, “On balance, the profession is feeling positive about future work for the fourth consecutive month. However, this month’s optimistic outlook feels fragile as economic challenges gather again. 

“Practices report that successive interest rate increases are affecting projects, and clients are struggling to secure project funding due to increased finance costs. Late payment of architects’ fees is reportedly on the rise. Overall, clients are being more cautious. The planning process is still a top concern, with viable projects getting stuck indefinitely.  

“On a brighter note, after months of very high inflation for the construction sector, the latest ONS data suggest that construction output inflation, whilst still high, is falling.  

“Despite the challenges, some practices report a strengthening market, lots of potential work, increased enquires, full order books, and a notable pick-up compared to the start of the year. 

“We will continue to report our findings to the Government and work with other built environment bodies to monitor trends.” 

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