29th May 2018

The Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) Future Trends Survey published today has shown that workload predictions in September 2019 were at their lowest point since July 2016 – a fall in confidence that then …..

…… appeared to be driven by the 2016 Brexit referendum result. This is also the fourth time the workload prediction figure has fallen into negative territory since 2013.

In September 2019 practices in London and South of England continued to be the most pessimistic about future workloads, with London dropping 7 points to -15 and the South of England returning a figure of -8. Workload predictions in the North of England dropped significantly from +29 to +6, while confidence in the Midlands & East Anglia also decreased from +19 to +6. Wales and the West had an increase in workload predictions, recovering from -15 to 0.

More small practices (1-10 staff) expected their workload to decrease over the next three months, dropping 4 points to -8. Medium-sized practices (11-50 staff) continued to be positive (+24), as well as large practices (51+ staff).

September brought a decrease in confidence across all sectors – the commercial sector (-7), community sector (-10), public sector (-10) and the private housing sector (-4), which was last negative in June 2012.

However, the Future Trends Staffing Index, which measures expectations of the number of permanent staff over the following three months, rose from 0 to +3 in September.

The survey also highlighted a lack of preparation by practices for a no-deal Brexit. In September, more than half (57%) of practices had done no preparation at all and of these, only 5% intended to do so in future. The survey showed 30% of practices had undertaken very few preparations, and only 7% had prepared across all areas where disruption is expected, despite Government advice to prepare for a potential no-deal.

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RIBA President Alan Jones said, “Continued political and economic uncertainty has put architects in a state of limbo, making it very difficult for practices to plan for the future. The RIBA has been providing resources to help guide and support members through these turbulent times, but it is clear the UK needs urgent clarity on Brexit, and how it will affect access to talent, the ability to trade and its impact on development.”

RIBA Head of Economic Research and Analysis, Adrian Malleson, said, “Every month we collect commentary from our survey’s participating practices. In September, many were unequivocal that Brexit has brought significant difficulties to current architectural practice. These range from a reduction in small private housing work and fewer enquiries, to wider concerns about the supply of materials and labour in the case of a no-deal Brexit.”

Next month the RIBA will launch a Resilience Tool Kit, providing Brexit business resilience guidance to members. For more information click here.

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