RIBA Future Trends Survey: Architects Expect Growing Workloads as Confidence Returns

The Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) has published the findings of its latest Future Trends Survey, a monthly report of business and employment trends affecting the architects’ profession.

The April 2024 findings show confidence returning to the profession. Over the next three months, architects expect workloads to increase – ending a ten-month spell of pessimism – and also anticipate stable staffing levels.

Architects expect increasing workloads after longest spell of pessimism 

In April, the RIBA Future Trends Workload Index rose by 2 points to +2, indicating that architects expect workloads to increase overall. This is the first time the Workload Index has been positive since June 2023, marking a return to optimism since last month’s Workload Index figure of 0 ended the longest run of pessimism since the survey began in 2009. 

Over the next three months, 19% of practices expect workloads to increase, 17% expect them to decrease, and 63% expect them to stay the same.

The outlook of small practices (1-10 staff) remains negative but better, rising by 1 point to -1, while the outlook of medium (11+ staff) and large (50+ staff) practices remains optimistic, improving by 5 points, reaching a combined Workload Index figure of +19.

Three out of four monitored work sectors also have an improved outlook. The outlook for the Private Housing sector (-3) improved by 5 points, while the Commercial (0) and Community (-12) sectors both rose by 3 points. The outlook for the Public sector (-9) held steady.

Regionally, the picture remains mixed. The workload outlook of practices in the South of England stands out at +24, a 36-point improvement and the first positive figure for the region since March 2023. The outlook in the North of England remains positive at +11. However, London’s confidence dipped by 3 points to -2, Wales and the West fell by 3 points to -5, and the Midlands & East Anglia dropped 12 points to -15.

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Architects anticipate steady permanent staffing levels and more temporary staff 

In April, the RIBA Future Trends Permanent Staffing Index fell by 2 points to 0, indicating that the same number of practices intend to increase staff numbers as reduce them. 

• Over the next three months, 11% of practices expect to employ more permanent staff, 10% expect to employ fewer, and 79% anticipate making no changes.
• Small practices expect falling staffing levels, returning a Permanent Staffing Index figure of -1, a 3-point fall compared to March.
• Medium and large practices remain upbeat about staffing levels, returning a combined Permanent Staffing Index figure of +9, a 3-point increase from last month.
• The regional staffing outlook remains mixed. The North of England and the Midlands & East Anglia expect falling permanent staffing levels, with London holding steady and Wales & the West and the South of England expecting to increase numbers of permanent staff. 
• The Temporary Staffing Index rose by 4 points to +1, positive for the first time since July 2022. This suggests increasing numbers of temporary staff over the next three months.
• Levels of personal underemployment increased from 20% in March to 25% in April. 

Practices report that cash-flow problems, planning delays, raised interest rates, and increased project costs continue to hold back project progress, new enquiries, and new commissions.

Planning delays are reportedly tying developer capital to land allocated to stalled projects, preventing the acquisition of further sites, and so squeezing the pipeline of design work.

Practices also report under-resourced local authorities and unreliable pipelines of public sector work dampening the architects’ market.

RIBA Head of Economic Research and Analysis Adrian Malleson said, “After ten months of pessimism, the latest Future Trends data paints a positive picture of growing workloads. April’s findings are the most encouraging for some time, and part of a longer-term trend of an improving outlook, despite month-on-month fluctuations. 

“Caution is still needed, as workloads are lower than a year ago, with a mixed regional picture and high personal underemployment. However, the vital housing and commercial sectors show early signs of a tentative recovery. 

“Some practices also note a strengthening market overall, an uptick in the public housing sector, and the significance of overseas work.

“We will continue to work with other built environment bodies to monitor these trends.”

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