21st December 2024

The latest Builders Merchant Building Index (BMBI) report, published in December, shows builders’ merchants’ value sales in October were up +1.2% compared to the same month last year. Volume sales climbed +2.7% while prices slipped -1.4%. With one additional trading day this year, like-for-like value sales (which take trading day differences into account) were down -3.2%.

Year-on-year, nine of the twelve categories sold more, and six did better than Total Merchants with Tools (+14.3%), Workwear & Safetywear (+10.1%), and Services (+6.0%) leading the field. The two largest categories, Heavy Building Materials (+1.1%) and Timber & Joinery Products (-1.0%), were both weaker than Total Merchants.

Month-on-month, October total value sales were +7.3% higher than September. Volume sales were up +6.5% and prices also edged up +0.7%. All bar one of the twelve categories sold more, with Renewables & Water Saving (+33.3%), Miscellaneous (+16.0%) and Plumbing Heating & Electrical (+15.3%) the top performers. Heavy Building Materials and Timber & Joinery products were marginally ahead of Total Builders Merchants, at +7.4%. Seasonal category Landscaping (-2.9%) was the only category to sell less. With two more trading days in October, like-for-like value sales were down -2.1%.

In the 12-month period between November 2023 and October 2024, total value sales were down -4.8% compared to the same period the year before (November 2022 to October 2023). Volume sales were -6.3% lower and prices increased +1.6%. The two largest categories – Heavy Building Materials (-6.5%) and Timber & Joinery Products (-7.4%) – declined by more than Total Merchants, while Workwear & Safetywear (+12.9%), Tools (+5.8%) and Decorating (+3.3%) increased the most. With three more trading days in the most recent 12-month period, like-for-like value sales were -5.9% lower.

Total value sales from January to October were down -4.5% compared to the first ten months of 2023.

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Mike Rigby, Managing Director of MRA Research which produces the BMBI report says, “Construction output remains pretty flat, with a -0.4% fall in volumes in October according to the latest ONS data, and a +0.4% increase in the three months to October, driven by a +1.7% increase in new work. However, a change in fortunes could be on the horizon.

“GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index climbed three points in November to -18, with all metrics improving since October. The biggest improvement was in major purchase intentions, which rose five points to -16. This bodes well for both the housing market and RMI activity in the New Year.

“The Prime Minister’s recent ‘plan for change’ speech will also bolster sentiment in the construction industry, with the 1.5m homes milestone again reaffirmed, along with promises to fast track planning decisions on at least 150 major infrastructure projects. Extra planning officers have also been promised to help get projects moving, but it’s the shortage of skilled labour needed to build the homes which has got the industry most worried.

“Will those in the corridors of power heed the warnings of major housebuilders and the Home Builders Federation (HBF) about the skills shortage? Could the government succeed where the industry has failed to resolve the age-old problem of recruiting and training the thousands more people needed to secure the future of UK construction? Their ability to deliver their target in the next five years will depend on it.”

October’s BMBI report, published in December 2024, is available to download here.

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