29th May 2025

The latest Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI) report, published in May, shows Q1 2025 total value sales through specialist Plumbing & Heating merchants were up +4.0% compared to Q1 2024. Volumes sales increased +5.7% and prices slipped -1.6%. There was no difference in trading days.

Quarter-on-quarter, total value sales for January to March 2025 were +3.5% higher than Q4 2024 (October to December 2024). Volume sales were up (+3.0%), as were prices (+0.5%). However, with two additional trading days in the most recent period, like-for-like sales were flat (+0.2%).

Q1 total value sales were given a boost by March sales, which jumped +12.1% compared to March 2024. Year-on-year, volume sales rose +9.6% and prices also increased +2.4%. There was one more trading day this year, so like-for-like sales were +6.8% higher.

Month-on-month, March value sales were +6.9% higher than February too. Volume sales were +4.9% up, and prices climbed +2.0%. An extra trading day in March meant like-for-like value sales were +1.8% higher.

Total value sales in the 12 months from April 2024 – March 2025 were up +1.2% against the same period a year before. Volume sales were stronger (+5.8%), but there was a decrease in prices (-4.4%). With four extra trading days in the latest 12-month period, like-for-like value sales were largely in line (-0.4%).

The PHMI Index for March 2025 was 111.9 with no difference in trading days compared to the base period.

Mike Rigby, MD of MRA Research, which produces the report comments, “To say it’s been a tempestuous start to the year would be a considerable understatement, as the world struggles to adapt to the rapid shifting of its foundations triggered by Trump’s volcanic tariffs onslaught. Relief that the UK has agreed a deal with the US has been short-lived as economists agree there’s little substance in it to drive growth. Other world leaders who have yet to sign a deal are contributing to the uncertainty and churn. For now, and the next five years at least, it’s goodbye Davos and know-where-you-stand treaties, and hello to the Godfather and an-offer-you-can’t-refuse.

“With such monumental geoeconomic headwinds, how will UK construction be affected? Even if the tariff tsunami is resolved quickly, a certain amount of disruption to supply chains and increased production costs is baked in. Given the cumulative impacts on uncertainty, I imagine consumer confidence and its effect on RMI and property will take longer to recover.

“Given the chaotic backdrop, merchant’s year-on-year March sales, and year-on-year Q1 sales are more robust than we could have expected. Admittedly, March 2024 and Q1 2024 were nothing to shout about, but month-on-month and quarter-on-quarter sales are also positive.

“Animal spirits are resilient and powerful, but confidence has taken a battering. GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index decreased by four points to -23 in April. All measures were down compared to March and expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months fell to -37, sixteen points worse than April 2024. However, the Major Purchase Index component of the Consumer Confidence Index which correlates with larger domestic purchases and RMI projects is down two points at -19, six points better than April last year, so not all bad! Wages rising faster than prices, and more interest rate cuts to come will also provide relief for consumers.

“In practice, whether consumers postpone big purchases in 2025 or not will depend on a mix of domestic and global factors. The world feels more fragile and uncertain now than at any time since the Berlin Wall came down in 1989”.