RIBA Future Trends Survey: Closes 2025 With a Downbeat -5 Figure

The RIBA has published its Future Trends Survey results for December 2025.

The RIBA Future Workload Index closes the year with a downbeat -5 balance figure. A negative figure indicates that, overall, practices expect workloads to decrease during the next three months.

December sees the Index fall by two balance points when compared to November’s -3 figure. Last month’s recovery has proved short-lived.

This month, 22% of practices anticipate an increase in workloads, while 27% expect a decline. Fifty per cent expect workloads to remain stable.

Once again, the negative outlook is due to heightened levels of pessimism among smaller practices, reflecting an ongoing, challenging trading environment. In contrast, medium and large-sized practices remain optimistic about future work.

The regional picture is mixed this month, with some areas optimistic and others increasingly pessimistic. London is neutral about future work.

Three of the four monitored sectors have seen a further deterioration in outlook. However, the Commercial sector, has rebounded into positive territory. It has been the most positive sector of 2025.

Current average practice workloads remain lower than they were a year ago. The average practice workload has decreased by 10% over the past twelve months.

The outlook for permanent staffing levels has seen a marked dip, falling into negative territory for the first time since the start of the year. The outlook for temporary staff has remained marginally positive, however.

In December, the outlook for small practices (those with 1 to 10 staff) fell further into negative territory, with a Workload Index of -11, a two-point fall when compared with last month’s -9 figure.

Nineteen per cent of small practices anticipate an increase in workloads in the next three months, while 30% expect a decrease, and 51% anticipate no change.

This month’s small practice outlook has deteriorated because a reduced proportion of small practices expect growing workloads. The proportion expecting workloads to decrease has held steady.

The outlook for large (51+ staff) and medium-sized practices (11 -50 staff) remains optimistic, although it has also seen a two-point fall. Their combined Workload Index stood at +28 in December, down from +30 last month. Forty-one per cent of these practices expect workload growth, 13% anticipate contraction, and 47% expect no change.

The regional outlook is mixed but has tended to deteriorate this month, reflecting the overall decline in outlook.

The South of England sees the biggest fall in confidence, with its Workload Index dropping from +7 last month to a firmly pessimistic -29. The North of England’s outlook has deteriorated further, falling from -1 in November to -8 this month.

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After holding a positive outlook throughout the year, London ends 2025 with a neutral, zero-balance outlook, suggesting an expectation of steady, rather than growing, workloads to come.

Wales and the West continues to have a positive, though softening outlook, with a +9 Workload Index in December, down from +20 last month. The Midlands and East Anglia sees a positive and improving outlook, with a balance of +6 this month compared with +3 in November.

Three of the four sectors have seen a deterioration in outlook.

Of all sectors, the outlook for the public sector deteriorated the most in December and ends the year with a pessimistic -9 index figure.

Confidence in the private housing sector has slipped further this month, posting its lowest balance figure of the year, -14.

The Workload Index for the community sector remains pessimistic, closing 2025 with a -8 balance figure.

In contrast, the commercial sector has seen something of a revival in outlook this month, rallying from -9 in December to post a marginally positive Workload Index of +1.

The RIBA Future Trends Permanent Staffing Index has posted a negative figure this month, marking the first time practices have been negative about future staffing levels since January 2025. At -1, the RIBA Staffing Index has fallen six balance points this month, suggesting, on balance, practices are seeking to reduce, rather than increase, staffing levels.

Eight per cent of practices anticipate an increase in permanent staff over the next three months, while 9% expect a reduction and 82% expect no change.

This fall in overall outlook has been driven by a decrease in the proportion of practices expecting to recruit staff rather than an increase in the proportion anticipating staff reductions. In November, 14% of practices expected to increase staff levels. This month it is 8%. The proportion expecting staffing levels to decrease has fallen slightly in December, from 10% last month to 9% this month.

The Staffing Index among Large and Medium-sized practices (11+ staff) remains firmly positive, at +22. Small practices (1 to 10 staff) have fallen into negative territory, returning a -5 Staffing Index figure this month.

The outlook for staffing across the regions is mixed.

The North of England, despite negative workload expectations, has returned a +4 Staffing Index. London, and the Midlands and East Anglia have both returned a zero permanent staffing index, indicating steady staffing levels over the next three months.

The South of England (-10) and Wales and the West (-4) have both returned negative balances, suggesting practices in these regions expect falling staffing levels, overall.

The RIBA Temporary Staffing Index softened very slightly this month, falling to +1 from +2.

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