RIBA Future Trends Survey: Fall into Negative Territory in April as Global Instability Dampens Economic Confidence 

The RIBA has published its Future Trends Survey results for April 2026.

This time, the RIBA Workload Index stands at -3, a four-point decline from March’s +1.

This month, twenty-four per cent of practices anticipate an increase in workloads, while 27% expect a decline. The remaining forty-nine per cent expect workloads to remain stable.

The April RIBA Future Trends shows that architects’ sentiment has again weakened as expectations for future workloads have fallen into negative territory this month.

A negative balance figure indicates that, on balance, practices expect workloads to decrease over the next three months.

Global instability is dampening economic confidence, driving inflation, and disrupting supply chains. This is affecting the outlook for the UK architecture market.

Confidence has weakened across practices of all sizes. Smaller practices have seen their outlook fall further into negative territory. However, while large and medium-sized practices have seen their outlook soften, they remain firmly optimistic about future workloads overall.

The regional picture reflects the overall falls in confidence. Future workload expectations have softened in all regions, with some reporting a newly negative outlook.

The outlook across the sectors is similarly muted, as three of the four sectors have a pessimistic outlook. The commercial sector remains the exception, however, coming in with a positive and slightly improved outlook in April.

This month practices report workloads being nine per cent lower than a year ago, on average.

The outlook for permanent staff remains marginally positive, while the outlook for temporary staff has become negative.

Workload index: Analysis by practice size, region, and sector

Looking at architecture workload expectations by practice size, April sees the workload outlook for small practices (those with 1 to 10 staff) fall further into negative territory. Following a -5 Workload Index in March, April sees a five-point drop, to -10. Twenty-one per cent of small practices anticipate increasing workloads in the next three months, while 31% expect falls, and 49% anticipate no change.

In contrast, the outlook for large (51+ staff) and medium-sized practices (11 -50 staff) is optimistic, although confidence has weakened. Their combined Workload Index stands at +25 in April, down from +39 last month. Among these practices, 38% expect workloads to grow, 13% anticipate contraction, and 55% expect no change.

The regional outlook has also weakened. All regions have reported reduced confidence in future work. No region is positive about upcoming work, and three are in negative territory.

In London, the Workload Index stands at zero suggesting steady workloads overall, with as many practices expecting workloads to contract as grow. This follows a +4 balance figure last month and a +17 figure in February.

Wales and the West has also posted a zero balance figure this month, following a +20 balance in March.

Midlands and East Anglia sees its Workload Index declining to -1 in April, down from +6 in March. The South of England also sees its outlook become negative, posting a -9 balance figure this month, following a +14 balance. The North of England sees its outlook fall further into negative territory, with a -4 Index in this month, following a -1 figure in March.

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Confidence is also subdued when looking at architecture workloads by sector. The poorest performing sector this month is private housing, which is also the most important sector for smaller practices.

The outlook for private housing has fallen from -4 last month to -9 in April. The outlook for the public sector has also deteriorated this month, falling back into negative territory, with a -4 balance in April compared with a zero balance in March.

The outlook for the community sector remains negative but has improved somewhat. This month sees the sector’s index rise by three points, up from -5 last month to -2 this month.

The commercial sector is the most resilient, with confidence about future work in the sector improving slightly this month. April sees a +2 sectoral balance, up one point from March’s +1.

Commentary

Overall, the profession’s assessment of future has turned negative as confidence softens.

Smaller practices are more likely to expect workloads to contract, reflecting their greater dependence on the increasingly fragile private housing market. In contrast, medium and large practices, typically with a more diverse portfolio of work and a greater likelihood to work in international markets, remain optimistic about future architectural workloads, albeit with increasing caution.

This overall softening of outlook among the profession comes as no surprise, however. Growth rates in the world economy remain threatened by conflict, uncertainty and trade tensions. Rising oil prices are inflationary, so reducing the prospects of interest cuts and increasing the possibility of rises.

These external factors may dampen future private capital investment and reduce domestic mortgage lending. At the same time, the cost of government borrowing and debt servicing is on the rise, reducing the sums available for public sector spending.

Economic and political uncertainty is a source of hesitancy in long-term construction spending and investment.

While the wider context for the architects’ market is challenging, there remains potential for an improved outlook, should the current conflict be resolved.

This month’s commentary gives a subdued picture overall. Practices are concerned about weakening demand, rising costs and growing uncertainty. Fees remain under intense pressure.

Raised borrowing and project costs are reported to be threatening projects and delaying client commissions. Several practices report a slowdown in new enquiries, with some projects being paused, having budgets reduced, or remaining in the early design stages.

Along with regulatory and guidance changes, the ongoing delays in the planning system are also contributing to project delays.

Even within such a challenging environment, some practices report an upturn in projects, plenty of work, increased new enquiries, or the expectation of stalled projects recommencing. Some practices report opportunities in international markets and UK community projects.

Nevertheless, sentiment remains notably cautious in an uncertain and highly competitive market.

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