RIBA Future Trends Survey: 2026 Begins with a Cautious Return to Optimism

The RIBA has published its Future Trends Survey results for January 2026.

As 2026 begins, the profession’s outlook for future work is showing signs of ongoing improvement. After ending 2025 with four months of a negative outlook, the RIBA Future Trends Index returns to positive territory this month.

January’s RIBA Workload Index rose eight balance points to +3, following December’s figure of -5.

A positive balance indicates an overall expectation among architects that workloads will increase in the coming three months.

January sees 27% of practices anticipate an increase in workloads, while 25% expect a decline. Forty-eight per cent expect workloads to remain stable.

All regions have seen an improvement in their workload outlook, with all but one being optimistic about future workloads.

The sector-specific outlook is notably more cautious, however. While three of the four sectors have seen an improved outlook, all have posted a marginally negative figure.

Current workloads remain lower than they were a year ago. The average practice workload has decreased by 12% compared with twelve months ago.

At -1, the RIBA Permanent Staffing Index shows that practices remain cautious about recruiting permanent staff. However, the +6 Temporary Staffing index suggests practices may turn to short-term recruitment to meet anticipated increases in workload.

Following a challenging 2025, staff levels are reported to be around 5% lower than a year ago.

Workload Index

With a Workload Index figure of -1, the outlook for small practices (those with 1 to 10 staff) remained negative this month. However, this is a marked (ten-point) improvement from December’s -11 figure and is the least pessimistic figure since last July.

Twenty-four per cent of small practices anticipate an increase in workloads in the next three months, while 25% expect a decrease, and 50% anticipate no change.

At +23, the outlook for large (51+ staff) and medium-sized practices (11 -50 staff) remains firmly optimistic. However, this month has seen a further softening in outlook, with their combined Workload Index falling five points from December’s +28 figure. Forty-three per cent of large and medium-sized practices expect workload growth, 20% anticipate contraction, and 37% expect no change.

The regional outlook has improved across the board this month, reflecting the overall improvement in outlook.

The South of England is the only region to post a negative regional Workload Index this month, with a -8 figure. This, however, is a 21-point improvement on December’s -28.

All other regions are positive about future work.

The North of England’s outlook has returned to positive territory with a +17 Workload Index, compared with -8 in December.

London begins 2026 with increased confidence, with a +4 balance compared with 0 in December.

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Wales and the West’s outlook has improved further, with a +14 Workload Index in January, up from +9 last month. The Midlands and East Anglia also sees a rising positive balance, with a +9 Index this month compared with +6 in December.

Three of the four monitored sectors have seen an improvement in outlook, although all sectors remain pessimistic about future work.

The private housing sector has seen the largest recovery in outlook, with its index moving eleven points, from -14 in December to -3 this month. This marks the highest Index score for private housing since July 2026.

The public sector has seen a seven-point improvement in outlook, posting a -2 balance in January compared with -9 in December.

The community sector also sees a sevenpoint improvement, rising from -8 last month to -1 this month.

After a strong rally in December, the outlook for the commercial sector has slipped back into negative territory, with a -3 balance in January compared with a +1 balance at the end of 2025.

Commentary

The year begins with confidence tentatively growing among architects. January’s +3 Index indicates that architects expect workloads to grow over the next three months, ending the four month period of negative balances which began in September 2025.

While the sector indices remain negative, they are improving overall. The critical Private Housing sector has shown the strongest gains. Regional outlooks have improved, too, with all but one region anticipating growing workloads.

Smaller practices remain pessimistic about future work, although their outlook is the least pessimistic since July last year. Medium and large practices remain positive.

Although overall expectations for future permanent staffing levels remain negative, expectations for temporary staff are positive and rising. Practices may be seeking to increase short-term capacity ahead of an anticipated workload uptick.

Commentary from practices this month is mixed. While the challenges of the current market remain, some practices report early signs of market recovery.

Many practices report that new enquiries remain slow, especially in the residential sector. Practices continue to describe homeowners being cautious about commissioning projects while project costs and interest rates remain high.

Fee competition continues to be intense, particularly from those who are not Chartered Architects and who offer to work on domestic projects.

Some practices note that while they have sufficient work for now, they are concerned about a weak pipeline of future projects.

Planning delays and increasing regulatory requirements continue to stymie workloads, with ongoing reports of projects being put on hold or cancelled.

On a more positive note, some practices report the number of new enquiries increasing as the year begins, and some anticipate that stalled developments will restart in the coming months. Others are optimistic that more projects will move from the early design stages into full design and construction.

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