26th March 2024

Key insights into the current state of the housing landscape are covered in the third edition of national planning and development consultancy Lichfields’ industry-leading housing delivery analytics report, Start to Finish.

The latest edition of Start to Finish highlights key trends in the changing dynamics of housing delivery across England and Wales and shows how this has been impacted by the end of Help to Buy loans and an uptick in mortgage rates.

With the chronic housing crisis and the forthcoming general election, the discussion around accelerating housing delivery is more pertinent than ever – especially if the Government’s target of 300,000 new homes per year is to be achieved.

The new study assesses what has happened on the ground in respect of 297 sites delivering a combined 387,000 dwellings. It provides a detailed look into the delivery of large-scale housing sites, including 179 sites each yielding 500 dwellings or more.

Key findings from the report demonstrate the nuanced landscape of strategic housing development:

Smaller sites of fewer than 100 units typically start to deliver new homes within a five-year timeline from the submission of the first planning application, while larger sites demonstrate extended planning and pre-commencement phases beyond five years.
Compared to the previous versions of Start to Finish, the new research points towards a slight decrease in annual build-out rates across sites of all sizes, a forecast echoed by the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) predictions for 2024 with the phasing out of Help to Buy and climbing mortgage rates.
Local demand for housing is a key driver for build-out rates, with areas of higher affordability ratios witnessing greater build-out rates.
The variety of housing, including a higher percentage of affordable housing and the presence of multiple outlets, also contributes towards enhanced build-out rates.
Large-scale apartment schemes on brownfield land show potential for high annual build-out rates; however, their delivery is subject to market fluctuations and often encounter extended planning-to-delivery periods. Their delivery can also be more ‘lumpy’ than conventional housing schemes because entire blocks of flats are typically recorded as having been completed on the same day.

Rachel Clements, Associate Director at Lichfields said, “In the current climate, the housing market faces fresh challenges and the urgency for housing delivery is undisputed. The findings in this third edition capture the nuanced realities of strategic housing delivery, presenting significant, on the ground evidence, crucial to inform realistic plan making and decision-taking outcomes.”

The first two editions of Lichfields Start to Finish report are the primary reference points for industry professionals and continue to inform numerous Examination in Public (EiPs), inquiries, and the formulation of local authority Five-Year Supply (5YS) assessments. Lichfields is committed to leading the conversation on housing delivery with the third edition of Start to Finish.

The full report can be viewed here.

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