27th March 2025

The latest figures from the Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI) report show total value sales for January 2025 through specialist plumbing and heating merchants up +0.7% compared to January 2024. Volume sales increased +6.4% while prices dropped -5.3% year-on-year. There was no difference in trading days.

Month-on-month, January value sales were up +35.0% on December. Volume sales were up +41.3% but there was a -4.4% decrease in prices. With five additional trading days in January, like-for-like value sales (taking trading day differences into account) increased +4.3%.

Total value sales in the three months from November 2024 to January 2025 were -2.0% below the same period a year ago. Volume sales rose +3.8% but prices fell -5.6%. There was no difference in trading days.

Value sales in the three months November 2024 to January 2025 were -2.5% lower than the previous three-month period (August to October 2024). Volume sales dropped -8.2% and prices increased +6.2%. With five more trading days in the most recent three-month period, like-for-like value sales were up +5.6%.

Plumbing & Heating merchants’ value sales in the 12-month period from February 2024 to January 2025 were down -1.3% on the previous 12-month period (February 2023 to January 2024). Volume sales climbed +3.0% however prices were down -4.2%. With two more trading days in the most recent period, like-for-like value sales were -2.1% lower.

January’s PHMI index was 110.6. With one extra trading day compared to the Index base period, the like-for-like value sales Index was 103.9.

Mike Rigby, CEO of MRA Research, which produces the report said, “It was a more positive start to the new year for specialist plumbing and heating merchants compared to the same period last year. But the outcome for 2025 must hinge on the hard-to-read political landscape at home and abroad, and the impacts that policy changes and delays in implementation will have on the construction industry, economy and consumer confidence.

“The uncertainty created by President Trump’s alarming tariff wars and his abruptly shifting alliances and transactional interventions, coming on top of the Labour Government’s missteps have rattled consumers’ confidence. That dropped sharply across all metrics in January according to NIQ GfK’s long running consumer confidence index. While the index rallied in February, consumers’ view of the general economic situation for the coming 12 months (-31) is way behind where it was the year before (-24). Little wonder markets are subdued with projects on pause or postponed for better times. Homeowners who are concerned about the future don’t stretch themselves to buy new properties or spend as much on major home improvement projects.

“Trump’s unsettling presence is reverberating across global stock markets and economies and starting to disrupt material supplies and costs as the roll out of new tariffs play out. At home, the government is pushing through its pledged planning reforms. That’s good for the building industry, but it’s not the only barrier to recovery and growth. Although the Builders Merchant Federation is leading an industry campaign to attract new workers into the building materials sector, the Government has yet to engage with the severe shortage of skilled workers required to build its target of 1.5 million new homes in this parliament.

“UK construction and its supply chains have acquired resilience and got used to rolling with the punches after five years of considerable turbulence. Now, Plumbing and Heating Merchants can prepare for forecast opportunities to grow more steadily beginning in the second half of 2025.”