RIBA Future Trends Survey: Negative Outlook Continues

The RIBA has published its Future Trends Survey results for October 2025.

The October RIBA Future Workload Index stands at -9, falling further into negative territory as the downward trend in outlook continues.

A negative balance indicates that, overall, practices expect workloads to decrease during the next three months.

Twenty-one per cent of practices anticipate an increase in workloads, while 30% expect a decline. Forty-nine per cent expect workloads to remain stable.

This negative outlook is due to the workload expectations among smaller practices (those with 1 to 10 staff) continuing to deteriorate. Medium and large-sized practices (those with more than 10 staff) remain optimistic about future workloads.

The regional picture is somewhat mixed this month, with the outlook in some regions worsening and negative, while others remain optimistic.

The outlook among all sectors is now negative, with the housing sector at its lowest point of the year.

Current workloads remain lower than a year ago. The average practice workload has decreased by 11% over the past twelve months.

The outlook for both permanent and temporary staffing levels gives a more hopeful picture, with both remaining positive this month.

In October, the outlook for small practices (those with 1 to 10 staff) fell further still into negative territory, with the small practice Workload Index posting a -15 figure, the lowest since the end of 2023.

Nineteen per cent of small practices anticipate an increase in workloads in the next three months: 34% expect a decrease, and 48% anticipate no change.

The outlook for large (51+ staff) and medium-sized practices (11 -50 staff) has weakened but remains firmly positive. Their combined Workload Index stood at +25 in October, down from +39 last month. Thirty-four per cent of these practices expect workload growth, 9% anticipate contraction, and 56% expect no change.

The outlook of the regions is mixed.

London’s Workload Index improved this month, rising two balance points from +9 in September to +11 in October. The outlook in Wales and the West also sees improvement, with the region becoming positive with an Index balance of +11, compared with -2 last month.

The North of England has seen a sharp fall in confidence this month, as its Workload Index fell from +13 last month to -18 this month. The South of England also sees its outlook weaken, falling from -9 to -11.

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While the Midlands and East Anglia remains negative, its Index has improved by 15 points to post a -1 balance in October.

The sectoral outlook has seen further falls across the board this month as all sectors see their outlook deteriorate, and all sectors are expect workloads to contract in the next three months.

Confidence in the private housing sector has seen further falls, with the sector’s Workload Index now standing at -12, down from -9 last month.

The outlook for the public sector has fallen slightly as its Index slips to -8 in October, compared with -7 in September.

The Workload Index for the community sector has also fallen, with a balance figure of -7 in October, down from -4 in September.

Having been the most resilient sector over the last few months, the commercial sector has fallen into negative territory, with a Workload Index figure of -5, compared with +3 in September, suggesting a coming contraction.

This month’s RIBA Future Trends findings show a continued downturn in architects’ expectations for future workloads. The outlook for the Private Housing sector is deteriorating most rapidly, and the Commercial sector has fallen into negative territory.

This pessimism reflects the wider context, as construction costs rise, interest rates remain elevated, and economic uncertainty – particularly pre-budget – persists. These external factors are working to dampen client demand, leaving some practices struggling to maintain profitability.

Despite widespread pessimism, there are areas of resilience and optimism, however. Confidence is rising in the capital, and medium and large sized practices remain resolutely positive about future work. It is also encouraging to see the RIBA Staffing Index holding up, suggesting that practices expect workloads to return in the longer term and so are maintaining current capacity

Nevertheless, the commentary received this month remains largely downbeat.

While some firms are seeing steady workloads, others describe this as the quietest period they have seen in some time, particularly those working primarily in the domestic residential sector.

Project delays continue. Cited causes include the Building Safety Act, the slow progress of projects through planning departments, and slow decision-making by clients.

Practices also describe unrealistic client expectations, intense fee competition and professional expertise being undervalued. A few practices report a better year than last, particularly in mixed-use and commercial sectors, and some anticipate recovery by early next year.

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